Is the IPO Window Open? What 2026's Listings Actually Say

By one measure, 2026 is the best year for US IPOs on record. By another, it is weaker than 2025.

Both are true. Companies have raised more money through US IPOs this year than in any year before. But fewer companies are going public, and most of the money came from a handful of giant deals.

That distinction matters if you are a founder deciding when to list, an investor deciding whether to buy new issues, or a reader trying to make sense of the headlines.

Record money, fewer deals

118 companies had priced US IPOs in 2026 as of October 23, down 34.4% from the same point last year, according to Renaissance Capital, which tracks IPOs with a market value of at least $50 million. Those companies raised $148.3 billion, up 362.1%.

That beats the $142.4 billion raised in 2021, the previous record, also by Renaissance's count. In early July, Axios reported the year was about $1.2 billion short of it.

The quarterly split, from Renaissance's third-quarter review, shows how lopsided the year has been. Take out SK hynix and the third quarter raised about half its 10-year average, from about 40% fewer deals.

Two deals carried the year

SpaceX priced its IPO on June 11 at $135 a share and began trading on Nasdaq the next day, valuing the company at about $1.77 trillion. It closed its first day at $161, up 19%. Renaissance Capital counts the raise at about $75 billion in its second-quarter review; other counts that include the over-allotment option are higher.

The shine faded quickly. By July 15, SpaceX had briefly traded below its IPO price for the first time, Bloomberg Government reported.

SK hynix, the South Korean memory chipmaker, raised $26.5 billion in a US offering in July. It rose 12.8% on its first day and was up 23.6% from its offer price at the end of September, according to Renaissance.

Cerebras, which makes AI chips, raised about $5.55 billion at $185 a share in May and rose 68% on its debut, W.Media reported.

All three are AI or AI-adjacent stories. That is the theme investors have been willing to pay up for.

Returns cooled in the third quarter

The second quarter rewarded buyers. IPOs raising $100 million or more averaged a 20% return from their offer price, Renaissance said.

The third quarter did not. IPOs gained an average of 6.2% on their first day and then lost 5.7%, for a total return of about zero by September 30. 39.1% of deals fell on their first day, and 30.4% priced below their marketed range. The Renaissance IPO Index fell 11.5% in the quarter while the S&P 500 rose 2.3%.

Some well-known names struggled. Sandwich chain Jersey Mike's raised $1 billion in July, fell 6% on its first day and was down 26.9% from its offer price by the end of September, according to Renaissance.

Healthcare was the exception. Nine healthcare IPOs in the quarter averaged a 16.6% return, even though they raised only $2.4 billion between them.

Why the window is narrowing

The biggest change is the cost of money. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, its first increase in about three years, InvestingLive reported. Higher rates make future profits worth less today, which hits young, loss-making companies hardest.

Renaissance also points to bond yields at a 19-year high, worries about how much companies are spending on AI, and the November midterm elections. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, has stayed relatively low, which helps.

Several companies have stepped back. Data centre operator Switch, AI cloud company Nscale and SB Energy are among those that have delayed listings, Reuters reported on October 22, as jitters about AI valuations spread.

What is in the pipeline

The biggest name on deck is Anthropic. The AI company is targeting a mid-November listing, with marketing that could begin the week of November 9, according to the same Reuters report, which said some investors put its value at about $1.5 trillion.

OpenAI is now expected to wait until 2027, Renaissance said. In total, Renaissance counts 221 companies on file seeking $21.7 billion.

One deal is worth watching from Africa. Nigerian fintech OPay filed for a New York Stock Exchange listing on October 9 and set terms on October 23 to raise about $320 million by selling 16 million American depositary shares at $19 to $21 each, according to Renaissance Capital. It has also received approval for a secondary listing on the Nigerian Exchange, TechEconomy reported.

Outside the US

Globally, IPOs raised a record $287.5 billion in the first nine months of 2026 from 888 deals, slightly fewer than a year earlier, according to EY's third-quarter IPO barometer. The same pattern holds: fewer deals, much bigger ones.

London had a quiet third quarter, with a single IPO, its quietest quarter since late 2023, EY UK said. Eight UK listings raised £606.9 million in the first nine months, up 204% from a year earlier.

In Nigeria, the Dangote refinery opened an IPO on the Nigerian Exchange on September 14, offering 4.1 billion shares at N525 each to raise N2.15 trillion, NGX Group said. The offer closed on October 13.

So, is the window open?

For very large companies with a story investors already understand, yes. SpaceX, SK hynix and Cerebras all found buyers at large valuations, and Anthropic is preparing to test the same demand.

For smaller companies, the evidence points the other way. Deal counts are down, a third of third-quarter deals priced below range, and the average third-quarter IPO was underwater after its first day. Rates are now rising rather than falling.

• Watch how Anthropic prices and trades. A strong debut could pull delayed AI deals back.
• Watch the share of deals pricing below range. That is the clearest sign of how much bargaining power buyers have.
• Watch the Fed's next moves and long-term bond yields.
• Watch OPay. A successful listing would be a useful signal for other African fintechs considering New York.

The headline proceeds number says the window is wide open. The deal count says it is open for a few, and those are not the same thing.